Global Trade Balance

The Trade Balance released by the National Institute of Statistics is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the Euro. If a steady demand in exchange for Italian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive (or bullish) for the common currency.

Next event - Monday 11 August 2025 09:00

Previous
€6.163B
Forecast
€7.12B
Actual
-

The typical/expected market impact of this event is low.

The consensus forecast for Global Trade Balance is €7.12B. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for EUR/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/EUR pairs.

Most recent - Wednesday 16 July 2025 09:00

Previous
€2.482B
Revised
-
Forecast
€2.87B
Actual
€6.163B

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for EUR/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/EUR pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Global Trade Balance was €6.163B against a forecast of €2.87B.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 16 July 2025 09:00
€2.87B
€6.163B
Friday 13 June 2025 08:00
€2.75B
€2.482B
Friday 16 May 2025 09:00
€5.2B
€3.657B
Friday 18 April 2025 08:00
€3.31B
€4.466B
Tuesday 18 March 2025 09:00
€5.15B
€-0.264B
Monday 17 February 2025 09:00
€4.35B
€5.98B
Thursday 16 January 2025 10:00
€4.5B
€4.218B
Tuesday 17 December 2024 09:00
€3.22B
€5.153B
Friday 15 November 2024 10:00
€2.55B
€2.58B
Thursday 17 October 2024 09:00
€5.55B
€1.431B
Monday 16 September 2024 09:00
€4.5B
€6.743B
Friday 9 August 2024 09:00
€5.55B
€5.065B
Tuesday 16 July 2024 09:00
€3.55B
€6.43B
Friday 14 June 2024 08:00
€4.25B
€4.807B
Thursday 16 May 2024 09:00
€4.77B
€4.341B
Tuesday 16 April 2024 09:00
€3.44B
€6.034B
Friday 15 March 2024 11:00
-
€2.655B
Thursday 15 February 2024 09:00
€3.65B
€5.614B
Monday 15 January 2024 09:00
-
€3.889B
Friday 15 December 2023 10:00
-
€4.699B
Thursday 16 November 2023 09:00
€3.45B
€2.35B
Wednesday 18 October 2023 08:00
€6.05B
€2.07B
Friday 15 September 2023 09:00
€6.5B
€6.375B
Friday 11 August 2023 08:00
€6.489B
€7.718B
Friday 14 July 2023 08:00
€1.45B
€4.711B
Thursday 15 June 2023 09:00
€2.753B
€0.318B
Wednesday 17 May 2023 08:00
€-2.633B
€7.541B
Tuesday 18 April 2023 08:00
€-3.427B
€2.108B
Friday 17 March 2023 09:00
-
€-4.194B
Thursday 16 February 2023 09:00
-
€1.067B
Wednesday 18 January 2023 09:00
-
€1.445B
Friday 16 December 2022 09:00
-
€-2.123B
Thursday 17 November 2022 09:00
-
€-6.454B
Tuesday 18 October 2022 08:00
-
€-9.569B
Friday 16 September 2022 08:00
-
€-2.166B
Friday 12 August 2022 08:00
€-1.368B
€-0.012B

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for EUR. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Global Trade Balance result:

PreviousLatest
Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)Bearish change-0.2%-3.6%
Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)Bearish change-0.1%-1.9%
Trade Balance s.a.Bearish change€18.6B€14.9B
Retail Sales (MoM)Bullish change-0.3%0.3%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bullish change1.9%3.1%
Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)Bearish change5.3%0.8%
Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)Bullish change-1.4%-1%
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.6%0.8%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change0.3%0.6%
HCOB Composite PMIBearish change5150.9
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change50.350.6
HCOB Services PMIBullish change50.150.6
HCOB Services PMIBullish change51.955.1
Sentix Investor ConfidenceBearish change4.5-3.7
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.4%-0.2%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2.3%2.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)2%2%
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change49.249.1
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.449.8
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change51.451.9
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0%0.3%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(no change)2%2%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.4%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change2%1.8%
Unemployment Rate(no change)6.2%6.2%
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)Bearish change1.8%1.7%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(no change)1.7%1.7%
Unemployment ChangeBullish change11K2K
Unemployment Rate s.a.(no change)6.3%6.3%
Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)(no change)0.9%0.9%
Business ClimateBullish change-0.78-0.72
Consumer Confidence(no change)-14.7-14.7
Economic Sentiment IndicatorBullish change94.295.8
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)Bearish change0.6%0.1%
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)Bearish change1.5%1.4%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bearish change0.4%-0.1%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)Bullish change0%0.4%
Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)Bullish change-0.2%0%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bearish change0.3%-0.1%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)Bearish change0.7%0.4%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change2.3%2.7%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bullish change-0.6%1%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bullish change2.6%4.9%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bullish change0.1%0.3%
Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ)Bullish change0.6%0.7%

About Global Trade Balance

Country:Italy
Currency:EUR
Source:ISTAT
Category:Capital Flows
Frequency:Monthly
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