ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:15

Previous
147K
Revised
147K
Forecast
108K
Actual
62K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 62K against a forecast of 108K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:15
108K
62K
Wednesday 2 April 2025 12:15
105K
155K
Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15
140K
77K
Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15
150K
183K
Wednesday 8 January 2025 13:15
140K
122K
Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15
150K
146K
Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15
115K
233K
Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15
120K
143K
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15
145K
99K
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15
150K
122K
Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15
160K
150K
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
288K
132K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
270K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
380K
Thursday 2 June 2022 12:15
300K
128K
Wednesday 4 May 2022 12:15
395K
247K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change0.5%4.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)3.8%3.8%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.5%62.6%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change185K177K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.9%7.8%
Unemployment Rate(no change)4.2%4.2%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change44.746.5
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change45.247.2
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change4948.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change69.469.8
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change223K241K
Challenger Job CutsBearish change275.24K105.441K
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3%2.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.7%2.3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.7%0.5%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.4%0.7%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change2.1%6.1%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change47.644.6
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change2.6%3.5%
Employment Cost Index(no change)0.9%0.9%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change2.4%-0.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change2.3%3.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change2.4%3.6%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.48M7.192M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.1%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change50.852.2
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)4.4%4.4%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change47.247.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change6.7%6.5%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change4.4%-5.9%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change0.9%9.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change0.8%10.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.7%0%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change216K222K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.3%0.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change3.1%7.4%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change53.551.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change50.250.7
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change54.451.4

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly

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